My 2026 Mississippi State Football Prediction: 8-4
Three days from now, Mississippi State finally gets to put all the offseason talk to bed.
This is Jeff Lebby’s third season in Starkville. The Bulldogs went 2-10 in 2024, improved to 5-8 last season, and now have a schedule that leaves very little room for a slow start. Time to put up or shut up.
I’ve gone back and forth on this team more than once, but I’m settling on 8-4.
I think Mississippi State gets off to a fast start, takes a couple of losses against some of the SEC’s best, and then finishes the regular season with a win in Oxford.
Yes, I’m picking Mississippi State to win the Egg Bowl.
Here’s how I see the season playing out.
Week 1 — ULM
Mississippi State 38, ULM 10— WIN
I don’t expect this one to be particularly complicated. Mississippi State is at home and should have a significant talent advantage. Don’t get cute. Take care of business and move on.
The biggest thing is just getting the season started the right way.
Record: 1-0
Week 2 — at Minnesota
Mississippi State 27, Minnesota 24 — WIN
Right out of the gate in week two the stakes get high.
Going on the road to play a Big Ten team in the second week of the season is a legitimate test, but I think Mississippi State has enough offense to make the difference.
I’ll take the Bulldogs in a close one.
Record: 2-0
Week 3 — at South Carolina
Mississippi State 30, South Carolina 23— WIN
Another road game, and another one I think State can win.
This is the kind of game that could look a lot different depending on how the Bulldogs handle the first two weeks. If they’re sitting at 2-0 and playing with some confidence, I like their chances in Columbia.
Give me Mississippi State by a tuddy.
Record: 3-0
Week 4 — Missouri
Mississippi State 31, Missouri 27 — WIN
This is the game that gets me to 4-0.
Missouri comes to Starkville. Vibes are up. Hopes are up. I think the home crowd helps State get through another close one. My prediction assumes Hardy will be back in the rotation. Without him, I feel like State may run away with it sooner.
Four straight wins to start the season would have everybody feeling pretty good heading into Alabama.
Record: 4-0
Week 5 — Alabama
Mississippi State 23, Alabama 34 — LOSS
I’m not picking against Mississippi State just to be negative. I just think Alabama is still Alabama. Deboer isn’t Saban but he’s ready to put the crimson doubters to bed and prove he belongs. I think Alabama has a big season.
The Bulldogs can make this a game, especially in Starkville, but I don’t think they’re quite ready to knock off the Crimson Tide. I initially had this one penciled as an upset but my gut tells me different.
This is where the first loss comes.
Record: 4-1
Week 6 — BYE
No game.
After five straight weeks to start the season, Mississippi State gets a much-needed week off before heading to Baton Rouge. The Bulldogs’ official schedule has Oct. 10 as the open date.
Week 7 — at LSU
Mississippi State 24, LSU 35 — LOSS
This is probably the game on the schedule where I’m least comfortable picking State.
LSU on the road is a tough assignment for anybody. I think Mississippi State hangs tough and keeps it a game for three quarters, but LSU eventually creates enough separation.
Record: 4-2
Week 8 — Oklahoma
Mississippi State 31, Oklahoma 28 — WIN
This is my big upset.
Oklahoma coming to Starkville gives Mississippi State a chance to pick up the kind of win that can change the perception of a season.
I don’t think State has to dominate this game. It just needs to make the big plays when they show up.
I think it does.
Kamario outshines a struggling Mateer and the dawgs pull this one off.
Record: 5-2
Week 9 — at Texas
Mississippi State 21, Texas 38 — LOSS
I’m not going to pretend I think Mississippi State wins in Austin.
Texas has too much talent and too much depth for me to pick the Bulldogs here, especially on the road.
State fights, but Texas pulls away in the second half.
Record: 5-3
Week 10 — Vanderbilt
Mississippi State 30, Vanderbilt 24 — WIN
This is a game Mississippi State needs to win if we’re talking about an eight-win season.
Vanderbilt isn’t a team I’d overlook, but this one is in Starkville. I think State finds a way to get it done.
It might be closer than people want.
A win is a win.
Record: 6-3
Week 11 — Auburn
Mississippi State 27, Auburn 30 — LOSS
This is probably my least confident prediction of the entire season.
I could see Mississippi State winning this one just as easily as I could see Auburn winning it. But if I’m making the prediction before the season starts, I’m giving Auburn the slight edge.
If this pick is wrong, 9-3 suddenly becomes very possible.
For now, I’m taking Auburn.
Record: 6-4
Week 12 — Tennessee Tech
Mississippi State 45, Tennessee Tech 13 — WIN
This is one Mississippi State simply has to take care of.
No reason to make it complicated. Get the win, get healthy and get ready for the Egg Bowl.
Record: 7-4
Week 13 — at Ole Miss
Mississippi State 31, Ole Miss 28 — WIN
We’re winning the Egg Bowl.
I don’t care if people think that’s a homer pick.
It’s the Egg Bowl, and I’m taking Mississippi State.
Throw records and spreads out the window. This is one of the deepest rivalries in college football.
Being eliminated from playoff contention the game before, the Rebels are lacking in team morale. The hype isn’t there.
I think State’s offense makes enough plays to keep this close, and when the game gets into the fourth quarter, I trust the Bulldogs to find one more big play.
Mississippi State leaves Oxford with the Golden Egg.
31-28, Bulldogs.
Final record: 8-4.
The Bottom Line
That’s my prediction.
Mississippi State finishes the 2026 regular season 8-4.
I have the Bulldogs starting 4-0, going 2-4 through the toughest stretch of the schedule, and then finishing 2-0 with a win over Ole Miss.
That’s an 8-4 regular season.
Could it be better? Absolutely. I think Oklahoma and Auburn are two games that could swing the entire prediction. Hell, just about any of them could. Could it be worse? Absolutely. Any given Saturday in the SEC, right?
But three days before kickoff, this is where I’m planting my flag.
8-4.
Hail dear ol’ State. —TT MissSt