Just one week ago, the Oklahoma Sooners' season was as good as dead and buried. Despite valiant efforts from the defense, they were sitting at 2-2, having lost what felt like a must-win against Michigan and been more or less embarrassed by Georgia. The fan base had officially turned on John Mateer, convinced themselves at least three different coaches were actually the ones at fault, and rumors were swirling that it was going to be an orange-out on the OU half of the Cotton Bowl. Even OU's Groza Award-winning kicker had yet to put one through the uprights this season. Vibes were as low as they've been in awhile, and it was quickly approaching Dust Bowl-levels of fans "selling the farm" on the rest of the season.
But as is always the case with the beautifully drunk sport of college football, everything has changed–again. John Mateer made the best throws of his career in the absolute biggest moment, the o-line (and offense in general) looked at minimum well-coached and coherent, and Tate Sandell forever etched his name in Red River Rivalry lore. Now, hope is alive–all they have to do is win out, and they are a virtual lock for the College Football Playoff, and even have a fighter's chance at the SEC Championship Game. That journey begins Saturday night against a very confident and high-octane Kentucky team.
Set to host the first conference night game in Norman since Alabama in 2024, the 80,000+ crowd in attendance is likely to be a raucous and rowdy welcoming party for the visiting Wildcats, and the Sooners will need every ounce of energy they can provide. This is not the Kentucky Wildcats of yesteryear, a write-off "basketball school" just filling out the conference schedule. After back-to-back weeks of exciting wins with heart-stopping finishes, Head Coach Will Stein has his team and the fanbase starting to believe. Stein is the former Offensive Coordinator at Oregon, and has brought that same high flying philosophy to Lexington. The Cats can move the ball with the best of them, and have put up a plethora of points up this point. As good as OU's defense has been, they will likely have to be as good or better (and hope the offense doesn't throw up on themselves) in order to keep the season alive.
Kentucky, however, has had the opposite issues of the Sooners thus far. While their offense has been outstanding, the defense has been leaky at best and downright porous at their worst. Their total defense, pass defense, and points per game have all been bottom 3 in the SEC through six games, and they've given up an average of 34 points per game in their four games against conference opponents. This strength-on-strength matchup creates a fascinating battle of opposing styles that is sure to make for yet another conference classic. While OU is looking to win a rock fight in the mud, Kentucky wants to create a shootout if they're going to have a chance at winning on the road again.
As maligned as the Sooners have been offensively, to their credit they have faced the 2nd, 3rd, 7th, and 22nd ranked defenses in S&P+ so far this season. This deep into the season, there's a large enough sample size to suggest that those teams are in fact very solid defensively, and while some issues have been largely self-inflicted, the Sooners could benefit from a schedule that seems to be trending more favorably for that side of the ball. Kentucky's defense, for example, is only 60th in the same S&P+ rankings. In fact, everyone left on OU's schedule is ranked behind the four teams with a pulse they've played to this point (all apologies to UTEP, you have a beautiful campus I've heard).
When all hope was lost, and the season was as good as over, there were but a few lone voices crying out that the season could still be salvaged with a win in the Cotton Bowl. A week and a win later, the vibe has shifted. The wheels have been put back on the Conestoga bandwagon, and plenty of people have jumped back on. The fanbase is back in and believing, and expectations have exploded again. And there's good reason for optimism! While talented, every team left is statistically worse than the teams they've already played. The offense appears to have gained some confidence and semblance of rhythm. Venables has shown he has a proven formula for winning tough, close games if the offense doesn't literally give the game away. All they have to do is survive the twists and turns and massive momentum swings that are sure to come in the rest of conference play and just keep the wagon rolling, whatever that looks like. The next test is Saturday.
Hold on to your butts.