This time last year the Tennessee Volunteers entered fall camp after a tumultuos spring. The former 5-Star QB, Nico Iamaleava, transferred during the spring protal window and the Vols were set to start Joey Aguillar, a QB who had not played power conference football before and learned a brand new playbook over the course of a few months. Beyond the QB position, the Vols had a rocky road with then Tennessee DB Boo Carter, who has since transferred to Colorado, and defensive star Jermod McCoy was coming back from injury. This of course was following a winter with rumored NIL hold outs leading up to a poor showing in a playoff game against eventual national champion Ohio State.
McCoy would end up missing the entire 2025 season. Ricky Gibson, the other standout Cornerback, would suffer a season ending injury in the first game, and Boo Carter would under perform with off the field issues creating a cloud around him. This led to a deep regression in a defensive unit that carried the Volunteers to a 2024 playoff birth. Paired with a new QB and inconsistent special teams, the Vols 2025 season was largely underwhelming with the team failing to beat a single FBS team over .500.
As Tennessee heads into the 2026 season with a new defensive coordinator and presumably more talent at QB what is a reasonable expectation for the Vols?
The New Comers:
JD Pickell said on his youtube that when Tennessee allowed Nico to walk in the spring of 2025 it signed up for an 8-4 season this year. Now, I am paraphrasing some and his full take is longer and more nuanced than this one line, but when you look at it the take makes sense. You lose a guy who had two years in the offense and this likely would have been hyped up as a big senior season with a potential playoff return. Instead, last year you had a gap filler QB and now you will have a first time starter (more on that later). That being said there are things I like about this team that I did not feel confident in this time last year.
I always expected the defense to regress in 2025, albeit perhaps not as drastically as it did. Now, I feel a lot more confident in that unit's direction with new addition to the staff, defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, leading that side of the ball. However, Knowles is known as a coordinator who needs a couple of seasons to establish his scheme.
With a new defensive scheme and a slew of talented transfers you also will have a new quarterback under center. Right now there is a raging QB battle between George MacIntyre and Faizon Brandon. Brandon being a 5 star freshman is probably the fan favorite for the spot at this point, but early reports lean towards the sophomore MacIntyre. It is hard to get a read on either when the media is only allowed to see less than 20 reps each between them.
MacIntyre has more experience in the system and with the playbook. In the past we have seen Heupel go with experience over young talent. All that to be said, I personally like MacIntyre. He is a Tennessee kid hailing from Franklin and wants to be a part of this program. If he is able to run the offense successfully, then by all means I would be happy to see him succeed.
Brandon was a highly touted recruit and was meant to be the successor to Nico. He has all the physical tools, but rarely does a true freshman break through in the SEC. To JD's point if you go with Brandon I think you have to be committed to that decision through the growing pains as well as the triumphs. When Nico got to campus I always believed he was raw and would need some polishing. Nico had not been playing organized 11 on 11 football very long and his mechanics always needed work. Brandon steps in much more polished as a freshman than Nico was. Additionally, Brandon has the athleticism to be dangerous with his legs.
Outside of the QB's, 5 star wide reciever Tristen Keys is joining the offense and could have a role as a true freshman. Donavon Haslam comes in from West Virginia as a transfer and OL Coach Mike Elarbee has been high on him in camp.
Defensivley you can see that DB was a priority in the portal with additions of Jadais Richard from Miami and Tevis and TJ Metcalf from Michigan. There are also some intriguing additions on the defensive line which will be welcome following the departure of Jordan Ross for LSU.
The Returning Snaps:
There is a lot of talent coming back especially on the offensive side of the ball. Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley return at WR looking to have breakout years. Matthews, a highly recruited prospect in his own right, is looking to build on a solid freshman season. Additionally, I am bullish on the offensive line. Elarbee has talked about inconsistent play in fall camp, but it seems evident that former 5 star OT David Sanders Jr. has taken a step forward in the off season. There is a good amount of returning snaps on the line as well as Desean Bishop returns at running back. I have seen a lot of talk about Ahmad Hardy this off season, but Bishop has flown relatively under the radar. In a best case scenrio I think Bishop could be a sneaky dark horse for the best RB in the conference like Dylan Sampson before him.
Defensively, Ty Redmond returned to practice after a breakout 2025 season. Tyree Weathersby and Daevon Hobbs will be stepping into larger roles on the defensive line and Jeremiah Telander and Arrion Carter return at linebacker.
Outside of QB there is a lot of returning talent that seems to be flying relatively under the radar.
Scheduling and other Extenuating Circumstances:
No way to sugar coat it. This schedule is harder than last years. For that reason, 8-4 this year could feel vastly different to 8-4 last season. The Vols have home games against Texas, Alabama, and LSU as well as road games against Georgia Tech and Texas A&M.
The number one thing that has to happen this season is you have to beat the teams you are supposed to. For Tennessee that starts with Vandy and Kentucky. You dropped a home game to your rival to close out the regular season last year. Now this year you have to get your lick back. I do not want to gloss over Kentucky. I kind of like Will Stein and I think Minchey at QB could sneak up on some teams, but my entire life Kentucky has been circled as a win. Lets not change that this year.
After those two games you have to win some road games. Georgia Tech will be an early test, especially with Arrion Carter presumably out on suspension. Tech was solid last year and Brent Key always has a hard nosed team. It is a gettable game, even without Carter, due to the talent Tech is replacing. They will also be breaking in a new QB. Finally, you have to win at South Carolina. Some individuals on the Gamecocks roster are recieving a lot of hype right now, but overall as a team they were disappointing last year. Shane Beamer may be coaching for his job by the time the Vols roll into Columbia and they should be eager to get the bad taste of the 2022 upset out of their mouth.
In the meat of the schedule you have Auburn at home and Arkansas on the road. Former Tennessee OC and now Auburn HC Alex Golesh is looking to build some momentum and he brought in transfer QB Byrum Brown with him from USF. Brown could be a breakout transfer and this has all the makings of a trap game, but if you want to be a good team you have to win your home games. Especially against a first year head coach at a program that has not finished above .500 this decade. Arkansas would be another potential revenge game. Last time the Vols went to Fayetville they dropped one to a, quite frankly, underwhelming Razorbacks squad. Arkansas is a team that has given Tennessee a lot of problems. Even when they are bad Tennessee seems to struggle. You cannot let what could be the worst team in the league punk you with a first year head coach. Plain and simple.
Let's talk about the big games. The ones every Vol has circled on their calendar. In their infinite wisdom the powers that be have taken Georgia and Florida off of our schedule. In their abscence we get to play Texas and LSU at home with a road trip to College Station somewhere in the middle.
Let's start with Texas. I think Texas will be good. I think Arch Manning might be the best QB in the league. If I had to pick a team to win the conference it would probably be Texas. That being said, Texas under Sark has not been immune to an upset. It almost happened last year against Mississippi State. It almost happened against Kentucky and Vandy. It DID happen against a pedestrian Florida team. It is a huge benefit that Tennessee gets the Longhorns in Neyland. It is less of a benefit that the TV executives have scheduled it for a noon kick off. It is a winnable game, but I do not think losing that game is the end of the season. This is the first game I have talked about that I imagine Tennessee won't be a favorite in.
October 17th is likely the biggest game of the year. If you beat Alabama it is a successful season. Point blank, end sentence. This rivalry has had some coals added to the fire the last few seasons and this is an opportunity for Heupel to build on what he has previously accomplished. Another team breaking in a new QB, but this one is notably squishy. Under Saban Bama was always tough, tenatious, hard nosed. But under DeBoer they have come across as soft. The run game was among the worst in the league last year. What have they changed that tells me it will be any different this season? Not much. This is a game where you may go in as an underdog but with the right home field crowd intensity you could be lighting cigars into the wee hours of the night.
The last two games on the schedule are Texas A&M on the road and LSU at home. I think TAMU was a benefactor of their schedule last season. Solid but probably not one of the 12 best teams in the country. I am also not very high on Marcel Reed at QB. I like Elko. I like the culture he is building. But if the Tennessee offense gets going I struggle to see how TAMU could keep up. I also thought this about Oklahoma last year and we saw how that turned out. This is probably the biggest question mark for me. I would give the Aggies the edge since this is a road game and Kyle field is no joke.
LSU is also somewhat of a question mark. Lane Kiffin makes his second return to Knoxville. They spent $40 million on a roster and I am not sure if they will mesh or if they will fall flat. I am not sold on Leavitt at QB. Heck I am not sold on Kiffin winning big games. There are so many things I could say about off the field antics that surround not only Kiffin but also LSU, their alumni, and even their state government. For simplicity lets keep it between the pile ons. LSU will probably be favored, unless that team falls apart. Kiffin has been good in the portal at Ole Miss but I have to believe at some point one of those new rosters with many personalities won't mesh. It has happened at other schools who rely entirely on the portal. At some point it will catch up with him. I pray to god this is a night game and we can see all the craziness from the last time he came to Knoxville. The difference is this time Heupel is not a first year head coach with someone else's roster. He has his own scheme and experience under his belt. As of right now I lean LSU but under the right circumstances I can see this becoming a hostile work environment for Joey Freshwater.
Scheduling aside, we are starting to see injury reports come out of training camp. Some noteable guys will miss significant time. This always impacts a team, especially one trying to install a new defense. As mentioned early returning linebacker Arrion Carter will miss the first two games with a supension. Chaz Coleman also left the team before playing a snap after transfering from Penn State.
Conclusion:
The big question mark for me is the QB. Can you get better play out of MacIntyre or Brandon than you got out of Joey Aguillar a season ago. At times the offense was dominant. At other times it was stagnant. We saw big leads against Georgia and Arkansas evaporate because the offense decided to stop moving the ball. We also saw a lot of drops at big moments. Can Tennessee be more consistent and methodical in its offense and can they clean up the mental mistakes. If so they could blow the preseason win prediction line out of the water. What if the QB struggles? What if special teams is still a disaster and the defense doesn't progress? I think the floor for this team is likely 6-6. If that happens and Faizon is your starter I think you have to ride that out and commit to his development. The flip side of that, what if everything goes right and the QB play is stronger than the last two seasons, the defense takes a leap after being disastorous last year, and you get contributions from your highly recruited freshman? The QB play is the biggest if to me, but IF you can get that offense ripping you don't need a fantastic defense. Hendon Hooker went 10-2 with a mediocre defense that forced a few turnovers in opportune spots. I think the absolute ceiling could be 11-1, but the most realistic outcome is 8-4. You beat most of the teams you are supposed to but drop one on the road to Georgia Tech or South Carolina and you knock off one of Texas, Alabama, and LSU at home.
Is there a world where you lose to South Carlina on the road and don't beat one of those teams? Sure. I believe the preseason win total was set at 7.5 because a lot of oddsmakers don't know what to do with this team. There is a lot of potential for variance, but on paper this team returns enough talent to hang with the upper half of the SEC.