I pick 10 games every week. Usually these will be the 10 closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on the upcoming slate. At the bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview. Disclaimer: these lines are off ESPN at the beginning of the week.
Another good week with an 8-2 record. I am currently a few
points back from first place in my pick em league and everything is still on
the table. This is a spot where sometimes the wheels fall off the bus. We are
halfway through the season and people think they have an idea of who the
contenders are and who the next pretender to fall will be. It is a time when
you start making picks with your heart instead of with your head.
Ohio State (-3.5) at Indiana
The heavy weights of the Big 10 clash and neither one has
looked flawless. The Ohio State offense relies so heavily on Jeremiah Smith
that if he were ever to get shut down that offense would look more similar to Oklahoma
than it would to Alabama. Indiana has played with its food. They are undefeated
but close victories against Nebraska and Northwestern do not inspire
confidence. I do think Indiana was in a look ahead spot last week on the road
against an undefeated Nebraska squad. I also have more confidence in Kurt Cignetti
than Ryan Day to win a big game. This could come down to who has the ball last.
I will take the home team with the points.
My Pick: Indiana +3.5
Florida at Texas (-9.5)
Real interesting spot here. Florida’s defense is bad and their
QB is average. Texas’ offense has not looked good so a 10-point spread is a lot
of points to cover. Florida leans on their run game and Texas has a loaded
front 7 equipped to stop any run game. It is the safe pick, but I don’t want to
over think it. Texas should win this game
My Pick: Texas Money Line
North Carolina at Duke (-3.5)
North Carolina has admittedly been better than I expected.
Duke dropped a game they should not have dropped. I still lean Manny Diaz
especially with the home field advantage.
My Pick: Duke -3.5
Alabama (-6.5) at Tennessee
The meat and potatoes of my viewing afternoon. The Third
Saturday in October. The rivalry that built the SEC. Nobody has more wins
against Alabama than Tennessee and Josh Heupel has won the last two in Neyland.
Alabama is coming off an emotional loss against Georgia and in the words of
Kalen DeBoer: “don’t let Georgia beat you twice”. Alabama could be without their
starting center which would be a potential field day for Xavier Gillam. Gillam
was called the best DT in the country by Cole Cubelic and has been a force all
season. The Vols defense is a top 30 unit in the country, but the passing
offense is among the worst. MacIntyre will be getting the start, and he needs
to limit turnovers. There is enough bright spots to believe in George, but
there is also a lot of development still to do. Tennessee will have to lean on
its defense, and the team will have to feed on the home crowd.
My Pick: Tennessee +6.5
Missouri at Ole Miss (-6)
People are starting to see the cracks in that Ole Miss resume
following losses by LSU and Louisville this past week. The Ole Miss secondary
is bad, and Austin Simmons may have an axe to grind against his former team.
This is an under-the-radar grudge match for several players and the coaching
staffs they left on both sidelines. I am starting to buy the Missouri hype.
My Pick: Missouri Money Line
Notre Dame (-10.5) at BYU
It is not the holy war, but it is Catholics vs Mormons.
Notre Dame is the heavy favorite despite not being tested to this point in the
season. They will go on the road and play playoff hopeful BYU. We have seen
Marcus Freeman lose these two game seasons in the past. However, BYU is without
their starting running back and has been largely one dimensional. I do not
worry about Notre Dame’s defense and if the Cougars cannot come up with a
running game the Irish can pin their ears back and go after the QB all night.
My Pick: Notre Dame -10.5
Wisconsin at UCLA (-3.5)
Can we get a round of applause for Luke Fickell? Someone who
I thought would be on the hot seat is now a win away from being considered for
a playoff spot. The Badgers loan loss came week one at Notre Dame and since
then they have knocked off Penn State on the road and Michigan State. UCLA is
coming off a huge win against Oregon and will be without their starting QB Nico
Iamaleava for the remainder of the season. This is a let down spot for the Bruins,
but you cannot underestimate the travel distance for Wisconsin. It could be a
slow grind it out game.
My Pick: Wisconsin Moneyline
Kentucky at Oklahoma (-6.5)
Everybody is buying the Kentucky hype. Well let me be the
first to tell you to pump the breaks. It is more likely that Kentucky finishes
6-6 than 11-1. Kentucky closes the year at Oklahoma, vs Vandy, at Tennessee, vs
Florida, at Missouri, and hosting Louisville. Significantly tougher road ahead
than Youngstown State, South Alabama, South Carolina, and the dumpster fire
that is Texas A&M. The Wildcats have a bad offensive line, and Oklahoma has
a top 3 defense in the conference. All Oklahoma has to do is not turn the ball
over. I think this could be a back breaker for the rest of Kentucky’s season.
My Pick: Oklahoma -6.5
Oklahoma State at Houston (-4.5)
I have had my eye on this game for weeks. I thought I would
be in attendance, but alas I will instead be at SMU and Virginia. If Oklahoma
State wins, they are in prime position to make a run at the Big 12 title game.
If you will remember their lone loss is out of conference. If Houston wins,
they have a path to the playoffs and the conference title game. This is a high-stakes
game for the conference with the most teams bunched together near the top. I
love what I have seen from the Cowboy offense and Drew Mestemaker since the
Oregon game.
My Pick: Oklahoma State Money Line
Season Record: 40-22