I pick 10 games every week. Usually these will be the 10
closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the
closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to
talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on the upcoming slate. At the
bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or
bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less
points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the
most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the
points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview.
Disclaimer: these lines are off ESPN at the beginning of the week.
I finally was able to break through and go 7-3. Inches away
from being 9-1, alas football is a game of inches. Time to settle in for what
is to this point the best slate of the season.
Iowa at Washington (-2.5)
Washington showed some life last week and covered a 10-point line against
USC. Overall the Huskies have not looked like a team capable of executing at a
high level, and Iowa is a stout defense. The Hawkeyes took a beating at the
hands of Ohio State after a last second win against Michigan. I am worried that
Washington’s morale may be broken and the bottom is about to drop out. Defense
travels so I like Hawkeyes on the road.
My Pick: Iowa -2.5
Indiana (-7.5) at Nebraska
Despite being 5-0 Nebraska is unranked. Indiana looked less
than stellar against a Northwestern team who was the only team they have played
this season with a pulse. That victory aged well after Chip Kelly resurrected the
Wing T Sally and put on a rushing clinic against Penn State while bringing a
tear to the eyes of every former football player who ran that offense back in
the 1960’s. This is a spot where Indiana likes to flex. They have returned a
lot of their defensive production and added gun slinger Josh Hoover. Hoover can
be turnover prone, but I am not a Matt Rhule believer. Prove me wrong, until
then I expect the Hoosiers to strangle the Cornhuskers like a python through
four quarters.
My Pick: Indiana -7.5
Texas A&M at Missouri (-3.5)
How many weeks in a row have we seen an SEC team coming off
an impressive win lose in a let down spot? Ole Miss, Florida, and now Missouri?
I don’t think so. Texas A&M is a lot closer to the bottom of the SEC than
they are to the top right now. Missouri is benefitting from home field
advantage and a coach who has been there longer than a single year. I expect
the Tigers to roll and the Aggies to continue their decent towards the
Southeastern basement.
My Pick: Missouri -3.5
Texas (-8.5) at Oklahoma
The Red River Shootout, a rivalry that shall be known by no
other name. Here we have another stinky line, an at times meandering Texas offense,
and a very good Oklahoma defense. This is the recipe for a tight defensive
battle. Both teams have had a week to regroup and get their offenses in order.
For Oklahoma, Mateer must limit turn overs. If he is not throwing it to the
Longhorns, or fumbling on his wind up, they can keep it close. Both teams have
stout defenses, so I expect multiple turnovers. For the Sooners’ sake, I hope it’s
not one sided. I fully expect Arch Manning to get up to an elite level of play
as the season goes on just like he did last year. I am just not sure this is
the defense that will allow his ascent.
My Pick: Oklahoma +8.5
Ole Miss (-10) at Vanderbilt
I have cooled significantly on the Rebels since their loss
to Florida. Perhaps that is an over reaction or perhaps I wanted to drink the
Kool-Aid after watching how they handled LSU in the first half. The defense is
highly questionable, which is not something you want to see from a defensive-minded
head coach. Is this a good breakout game for 5-star true freshman Jared Curtis?
I do not think so. Vandy is missing too many pieces.
My Pick: Ole Miss -10
UCLA at Oregon (-11.5)
A little west coast action with two very alive teams. Oregon
is starting a backup QB, but don’t be fooled Dylan Raoila has two years of
starting experience under his belt from his time in Lincoln. UCLA is undefeated
so a line this big is interesting to see all things considered. Could we see some
throwback Pac-12 conference cannibalization?
A loss for Oregon all but knocks them out of the playoff conversation. I
like the Ducks to win at home, but the Bruins to cover.
My Pick: UCLA +11.5
Houston at KSU (-2.5)
Houston storms back after being down 17 points last week and
narrowly misses the 10.5 cover by half a point. Tragic for me. I am still riding
the Cougars with the Oklahoma State Cowboys coming to town next week for a
pivotal Big 12 matchup.
My Pick: Houston ML
LSU at Kentucky (-10)
You want to talk about a chance to flex? Despite not too
terrible O-Line play, Kenny Minchey has a shockingly high-pressure rate. LSU is
a defense that can take advantage of that, and the Kentucky defense has been
squishy against most teams they have played. This feels like a real come back
to earth moment for the Wildcats.
My Pick: LSU -10
Georgia at Alabama (-1.5)
Game of the week in the eye of a hurricane! Apologies to the
Miami football team but the most notable hurricane is set to make landfall this
weekend ahead of the potential match of the year. This may be the best Alabama
team under DeBoer but to this point they have not been tested by a true playoff
threat. Neither has Georgia, but Kirby Smart and company have earned some good
will from years of championship level success. Both teams looked impressive and
the winner will almost certainly make the SEC championship game. Alabama has
more holes that I can see than Georgia, but this is truly a pick em.
My Pick: Georgia ML
USC at Penn State (-1.5)
Potential loser leaves town matchup. Matt Campbell has lost
each of his last 2 games as a favorite. Lincoln Riley pulled it out against
Washington after once again stumbled on the big stage the week before against
Oregon. A USC loss likely means Lincoln can put his house on the market. Win or
get tarmacked.
My Pick USC ML
That is a loaded slate. There are plenty of intriguing games
we did not talk about. Seats are getting hot so look for a dead cat bounce or a
crowbar. While Fickell may have saved his job, Beamer has almost assuredly lost
his. Plenty of games and storylines outside of this pick em.
Season Record: 32-20