They say the first loss of the year is always the hardest,
but honestly the Texas game last week made me feel a lot better coming away. If
you would have told me before the game Tennessee gave up 10 sacks and scored
one offensive touchdown, I would assume the final was something to the tune of
38-10. In contrast, the defense looked good, Faizon played tough and did not
turn the ball over, and special teams had a rare bright spot. The bad news is
the offensive line looked straight up bad at times, but the good news is you won’t
have to face a front 7 that good for the rest of the year.
Homecoming:
If you know these teams, I don’t have to tell you that Alex
Golesh was the offensive coordinator at Tennessee in 2022 with Hendon Hooker
and the gang. You may or may not know that Auburn’s safeties coach is Tim
Banks, the former Tennessee defensive coordinator before Jim Knowles was hired
this offseason. Needless to say, these are a set of coaches that are familiar
with each other, and in Banks’ case may have some bad blood.
Offensive Woes:
Both teams have struggled on offense as of late. Despite nearly
scoring 40 on a Florida team that does not look all that bad, Auburn has failed
to score more than 21 points in their other two games against power 4 opponents.
Byrum Brown does not look like an SEC quarterback, and the Golesh offense is
taking a few games to rev up. Tennessee has struggled passing the ball,
especially last week against Texas, but has been able to rely on the running
game. I wonder if that will continue to hold up as injuries on the offensive
line continue to mount.
Defensive Familiarity:
Tim Banks may be the most familiar defensive coach in the
country with Heupel’s system. Even more so than Golesh who was the OC due to
significant changes in that system since Golesh left for USF at the conclusion
of the 2022 season. However, Tim Banks is a mediocre coach. Third and Banks was
a regular phrase used in part because on 3rd and short Banks would
line his DB’s 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. Josh Heupel may feel
comfortable letting Brandon rip it against soft coverage. Screens and slants
work great if you are going to play so far off the ball. On the flip side Tennessee’s
defense has looked much improved under Jim Knowles. The DB’s are much better in
coverage and the front 7 are still tenacious, accounting for 6 sacks against
Arch Manning and the Longhorns. On top of that, Tennessee has a takeaway in 3
of its 4 games this season. If Byrum Brown is playing too loose a opportunistic
defense could force a few turnovers.
The Spot:
Both teams played tight games last week, but I like the spot
Tennessee is in to bounce back. Playing at home is a huge lift for a Vols team
that feeds off the crowd and is playing against a first-year head coach without
a real offensive weapon. The weather may be nasty, but Tennessee has shown the
ability to run the ball. The key for auburn will be disrupting the passing game
with pressure while only bringing 4 pass rushers. To be blunt, I don’t think Auburn
has the ability to do that the same way Texas did. Auburn will have to force
turnovers, something Texas was not able to accomplish despite the prolific pass
rush.
The Winner:
I like Tennessee to win this game and cover the 7-point spread.
I think it could be close going into halftime, but I expect Tennessee to pull
away in the second half due in part to the defense strangling the Auburn
offense as the game goes on.