I pick 10 games every week. Usually these will be the 10
closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the
closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to
talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on the upcoming slate. At the
bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or
bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less
points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the
most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the
points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview.
Disclaimer: these lines are off ESPN at the beginning of the week.
Another week another 6-4 record. We are starting to build separation
from .500, but as the season takes shape hopefully, we can hit a big week of
picks.
Pitt at Virginia Tech (-3.5)
I have been sneakily following these teams all year.
Virginia Tech has escaped a few games including last week against Boston
College. Pitt is very quietly positioning themselves to make a run at the ACC
Title game. I am not ready to believe in James Franklin yet. I think Narduzzi
and crew can pull of the win on the road. I tip this more to coaching and
roster continuity than anything else.
My Pick: Pitt -3.5
Penn State (-2.5) at Northwestern
Nobody was more vindicated last week than I was when the Badgers
stormed back to topple the Nittany Lions. Not only did I have Wisconsin +10,
but I also said I was not buying the Penn State hype. Please tell me why they
ever deserved to be ranked at all? Let alone as high as 14 in the AP Poll.
Northwestern is opening up a new stadium and has been a tough out in recent
weeks. All that to say, I like the state college of Pennsylvania in a bounce
back spot.
My Pick: PSU -2.5
Alabama (-6) at Mississippi State
Probably the most intriguing game of the day and a daggum, shame
it is at noon instead of at night. Whoever gave LSU and McNeese State or Arkansas
and Texas A&M night games over Kamario Taylor deserves jail time. Alabama
looks like the best team of the DeBoer era, and I am not sure Mississippi State
can overcome that team even with the heroics of Kamario Taylor. Might have to
perform a wellness check on old George. It could get ugly in Starkville. One
thing to keep an eye on, Alabama is driving down from Tuscaloosa the morning of
the game. That could impede their pregame schedule. An odd move in a sport
where routine is so important, even if they are the two closest towns in the
SEC.
My Pick: Alabama -6
UCF at Houston (-10.5)
I am putting some stock in the Cougars in the hopes I get to
see a pivotal game between them and Oklahoma State on October 17th. Houston
has looked good so far this year and is still very much a player for the Big12
despite an earlier loss to Texas Tech.
My Pick: Houston -10.5
Florida (-4.5) at Missouri
This is a stinky line. Everybody is riding high on Florida
after beating Ole Miss. Just as everyone was high on Ole Miss after beating LSU,
and everyone was high on LSU beating Clemson. Do you see what I am getting at?
Florida is undoubtably better than last year, but before we crown them a playoff
team it may be good to pump the breaks and see how it plays out. Missouri could
give them some trouble. In fact, Missouri could beat them out right. Vegas has
given us some stinky lines, maybe we should pay attention.
My Pick: Missouri +4.5
Ohio State (-13.5) at Iowa
Iowa beat Michigan on a last second touchdown. Very fun.
Always good to see Michigan lose. Lets pump the breaks on giving Iowa a 10-2
season. Ohio State rolls. Iowa does not have the dudes.
My Pick: Ohio State -13.5
Auburn at Tennessee (-7)
For a full breakdown on this game, go check out my preview.
Golesh returns to Knoxville along with former DC Tim Banks, now with Auburn as
the safeties coach. The weather is supposed to be ugly so expect a lot of
running the dang ball. Tennessee showed me a lot last week and despite some
nagging injuries I really like the defense to bottle up a very pedestrian
Auburn attack. I would like to see Faizon air it out some, weather permitting,
but Auburn is a team where it is ok to lean on the run.
My Pick: Tennessee -7
Kentucky at South Carolina (-3)
Talk about stinky lines. This is the stinkyest line of the
afternoon. Kentucky handles TAMU and South Carolina gets boat raced by
Mississippi State and Alabama. Shane Beamer very well could be collecting a buy
out check by Sunday afternoon. However…. What was it I said about trusting
Vegas’ stinky lines? Oklahoma had a stinky line against Michigan and lost
outright. LSU had one against Ole Miss and lost outright. Ole Miss had one
against Florida… you see where I am going with this? Kentucky is not so good
that they are immune to a letdown spot. Ladies and Gentlemen, if you will
please look at the calendar, you will find that it is Cocktober.
My Pick: South Carolina Money Line.
BYU (-6.5) at TCU
TCU may stink and BYU may be in upper tier of Big 12 teams,
but I am not touching a touchdown line in that conference. Everyone is so close
to the middle that 6.5 on the road may as well be two touchdowns.
BYU Money Line
My Pick: Washington at USC (-10)
My view on USC right now is that it is a coaching graveyard.
Every time you have an opportunity to play a big game you lose. Never mind the
absolute clown show surrounding the Trojan players dancing and cutting it up on
the sidelines while Dante Moore was down on the field. Feels increasingly like
Lincoln Rilet’s days are numbered. However, Washington is not exactly inspiring
confidence these days. It is apparent that Jedd Fisch thought he would be at
Florida this year and Demond Williams Jr. thought he would be anywhere else.
My Pick: Washington +10
Season Record: 25-17