We are approximately one third of the way through the season
which means the college football playoff picture is getting clearer. Some teams
are looking like conference contenders, while others have underperformed to our
expectations. If each team was a stock or a bet slip, would you be buying,
selling, or holding your position? Let’s dive in to some teams that are piquing
my interest.
Florida: Sell
Everybody is gassing up the Gators after a win over Ole Miss.
Please excuse me if I am here saying pump the breaks. Florida is now in the
exact same position Ole Miss was in last week, a huge let down spot on the road
against a feisty under the radar SEC opponent. Not only that, Florida still has
to play Georgia and Texas. If this were a stock you would be buying in at the
absolute peak price. I think there is a real chance Missouri makes things
difficult for Jon Sumrall and company. I even think they could pull the upset.
If I am a CFB investor, now is a good time to sell.
Oklahoma State: Buy
Yes, Oklahoma State lost to Tulsa, but that is not a
conference game so they are still very much alive for the Big 12 and the
College Football Playoff. As it stands the Cowboys have the fifth best odds to
win the Big 12. That is a bet slip that is worth investing in. They already
have a huge win over Oregon and a road win against West Virginia, but they are
still being overlooked for Texas Tech, BYU, and even Houston. October 17th
will tell us a lot. The price is right, so I am buying the Cowboys.
Texas: Hold
There is a lot of talk that Texas is not the number one
team. How? They have the best resume. They have two top 25 wins, one on the
road and one against the preseason number one. I believe Texas will do what it
did last year and gradually ramp up its offensive production by the end of the
season. The get in price is pretty high but if you already have Texas stock I
would hold that position. Especially now that we are seeing Oklahoma and Texas
A&M fall off a cliff.
Virginia Tech: Sell
The Hokies are off the mat, but I am not sure they are ready
for CFP contention. They barely escaped against Boston College last week and
now host a dark horse Pitt team at home. They still have to play at Clemson, at
SMU, and at Miami to close up the season. There is a very good chance the
Hokies lose 4 of their last 5. That stock has nowhere to go but down. Sell
immediately.
Tennessee: Buy
This might be the lowest get in price for the Vols all year.
Coming off a loss to Texas where the freshman QB looked like a freshman and the
offensive line gave up 10 sack. Similar to my logic with Texas, I think Faizon
Brandon gets better as the year goes on and he gets more comfortable in the
system and with college game speed. The Vols also won’t play another front 7 as
good as Texas the rest of the regular season. To be a real CFP contender they
have to win the games they should, which with the way the schedule is shaping
out is very doable, and they must split LSU and Alabama, both of which are in
Neyland. Everybody on that schedule is beatable. If you finish 10-2 with a win
over another playoff contending team you should be in great shape.
Oregon: Hold
If you kept your Oregon stock after the Oklahoma State game
you may as well hang on till the end of the year. The Ducks just whipped USC on
the road and backup QB Dylan Raiola is more than capable of running that
offense. The Ducks are still very much alive, but there is work left to do.
They have to beat a ranked UCLA team this week, a currently undefeated Nebraska
team next week, and then barring catastrophe they travel to Ohio State November
7th for s pivotal Big 10 matchup. That stock could still payout so hold the
line.
Ole Miss: Sell
Ole Miss already has a signature win against LSU, but the
Louisville win took a hit when the Cardinals lost to Wake Forest last week. On
top of that, the schedule does not get any easier with Missouri, Texas, Georgia
still waiting. Finish that off with a rivalry game against Kamario Taylor who
is leading Mississippi State to their best season this decade. It could get
nasty in Oxford if that defense does not improve.
Indiana: Buy
The Hoosiers are flying a little under the radar after a
close one against Northwestern. The Wildcats were the first team Indiana has
played with even a mild semblance of a pulse. Indiana has quietly TROed their
way to bringing back a lot of defensive contributors that helped them win the
national title last season. This is probably the lowest get in price you will
find so I would buy while everyone else is focused elsewhere.
Boise State: Hold
Boise State is currently the favorite to claim the G6 CFP
bid. They have wins over Memphis and Western Michigan. The only other prominent
contender at this point is James Madison. They should be a favorite in all of their
remaining games. The get in price is probably too high, but if you already own stock
in blue astroturf I would not sell it.