The game of the week is Texas at Tennessee. College Gameday
announced earlier this week it would be in town. Josh Pate announced last week
he would be in attendance. And as I am writing this post, the news is breaking
that President Trump will make his way to Knoxville. All of this amid an
atrocious noon scheduling slot done by ESPN weeks ago and a sea of groans
asking why Gameday is not attending the match of two 2-1 G6 programs. Cannot
say I blame Pat and the gang.
The Arch Manning Equation:
Can we be honest? Arch has started the year underwhelming,
just like last year. At the end of last year, I thought he was playing lights
out and the hope was it would transition to a fast start this year. Alas, Arch
has a QBR worse than John Mateer thanks in no small part to the drops from his
wide receiver Ryan Wingo. In fact, Texas has not looked all that impressive
aside from the final quarter against Ohio State where they stormed back to beat
the number one team in the nation.
The Buckeye Factor:
There is no denying it, beating Ohio State was huge.
However, the manner it was done is what piques my interest. Similar to Alabama’s
comeback against Georgia a few years ago (featuring the Ryan Williams highlight
that put him on the map), Texas was playing in what I call “irregular game
conditions”. Essentially, when you are down that big the gameplan goes out the
window. There is a lot less establishing the run and you nearly abandon set up
plays. You let the QB play looser and just sling it hoping for the best. Additionally,
after a team has revved the engine in the first half, it can be difficult to
kick that offense back in gear. It is a huge win. I am not saying Ohio State is
overrated, but they suffered from plenty of mishaps to make that come back
happen. I am not sure Texas will be in a position to replicate that performance
if they go down big early again in part because they won’t have the home crowd
to feed on.
Schedule Merchants:
As I look back at Texas’ success the last two seasons, two
things became glaringly obvious. They play down to their opponents’ level on
the road (loss at Florida and one score wins at Mississippi State and Kentucky
in 2025). More than that though, that schedule, by SEC standards, is softer
than what you find in a newborn’s diaper. Ranked 2024 opponents include games
against Georgia in the regular season and SEC championship, which they lost
both times, and a playoff path of 9-3 Clemson who had no business being in the
playoffs in the first place, and a tighter than it should have been game
against Arizona State. In 2025 Texas played 5 ranked games. Two of them were
true road games and they went 0-2. The other three games were a 3-point win at
home against Vanderbilt, a 10 point win against TAMU, and a 17 point win
against an injured John Mateer and Oklahoma at a neutral site. Excuse me if I
am not wowed by those wins. You can say the same about Tennessee in 2025, but
at least we beat Alabama in 2024.
Keys to the Game:
All of that to say I think Tennessee has a puncher’s chance
at the upset. To do that Tennessee will have to block that Texas defensive
front impeccably. The fans might disagree, but Tennessee’s offensive line has
some high individual grades. If Sham Umarov can show some consistency, or
Haslam can put on game film what he has shown in practice, it is certainly
doable. Tennessee has leaned on its run game through the early parts of this
season in no small part because of the experienced offensive line.
We will need to see more from Faizon this game. I am of the
belief the first few games were being treated as confidence boosters. Let him
build some chemistry and get comfortable at game speed. My hope is that the
staff does what they did for Joey against Georgia last year and allow Brandon
to let it rip. Both teams probably think their WR cores have an edge over the
other side’s DB’s. I would love to see a Mike Matthews big game as Faizon airs
out over the top when Muschamp and co stack the box.
On Muschamp, that is a coach who has seen Heupel’s offense
and has had success stopping it. On paper this is the most talented Tennessee roster
Muschamp will face from a personnel standpoint, but talent should not be an
issue for the Longhorns. It should not be an issue, but this Texas front is not
sniffing the generational defenses Muschamp got to coach under Kirby Smart at
Georgia. The flip side is Knowles also has experience facing Sark’s offense
with wins at Ohio State and Oklahoma State previously. This very well could
turn into a battle between two seasoned defensive coordinators and a chess
match between two offensive masterminds.
Prediction:
-5.5 is a tricky line for Texas to be favored by. We saw
Oklahoma go in as a -5.5 favorite and lose outright at Michigan after Vegas was
begging the country to take the Sooners. I do not think this is the same play
from the oddsmakers, but nearly every model or advanced metric analysis I have
seen thinks 5.5 is too large. I am not here to play for points or moral
victories. I am worried that Trump’s presence could make getting into the stadium
difficult. Compound that with the fact it is a noon game may take the edge off
of Neyland early. I still like the Volunteers to pull off the upset outright.