I pick 10 games every week. Usually these will be the 10
closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the
closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to
talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on the upcoming slate. At the
bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or
bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less
points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the
most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the
points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview.
Disclaimer: these lines are off ESPN at the beginning of the week.
I got off to a hot start going 5-0. For a minute there it
looked like a banner week. Alas, despite picking the correct winner in the game
of the week I would finish the slate 1-4 for a Week 3 record of 6-4. Sigh*
Texas (-3.5) at Tennessee
For my full review check out my week 4 preview on this game.
Short version is I like Tennessee’s chances at pulling the outright upset. This
game opened as a 5.5 favorite which is what we normally put on these Pick Ems,
so I am surprised to see the updated line. If it was still -5.5 I would take
Tennessee with the points but since it is -3.5, I will hedge a little. I do
think Tennessee can pull the outright upset.
My Pick: Texas ML
Ole Miss at Florida (-3)
Auburn scoring 40 last week was crazy. I am not sold on that
offense at all. It was a road game so hats off to Sumrall. I will not be
picking against Ole Miss until proven otherwise, even with a potential big game
hangover on the road. Trinidad is just that dude.
My Pick: Ole Miss ML
Utah (-7.5) at Iowa State
Utah has turned some heads in the Big12, but we have not
seen them tested yet. Iowa State is a new team with a new coach, so I do not
expect much from them following the departure of Campbell and Rocko Becht. -7.5
is another of those weird lines so I will go with Utah ML.
Utah ML
Iowa at Michigan (-4.5)
I do not believe in Michigan.
They lost to Western Michigan and somehow pulled off the upset against
Oklahoma. The difference between the Sooners is that the Hawkeyes know their
identity. Michigan’s defense will keep them in the game, but this has all the
makings of a slug fest. When to teams play similar styles usually the team that
does it better wins. I DO think Iowa does it better because that has been their
identity for over two decades, but Michigan has a steep talent advantage.
My pick: Michigan -4.5
Wisconsin at Penn State (-10)
I think Penn State wins the game but the large line is a
head scratcher to me. Penn State has a lot to prove in my mind. Luke Fickell’s
seat is getting hot as results have been few and far between. The Badgers may
need some desperation to save his job.
My Pick: Wisconsin +10
South Carolina at Alabama (-13.5)
I fully expect South Carolina to start off with a double-digit
lead and then get steam rolled. These teams are polar opposites in how they
played their games last week. Bama is surging and Beamer has repeatedly failed
to identify his personnel issue at wide receiver. Sellers has gotten worse each
year. In a perfect world, Beamer will be the special teams coordinator in
Knoxville next year after he gets canned by the Cocks.
My Pick: Alabama -13.5
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-2.5)
I am kind of buying the hype for both teams. OK State looks
like a new team after the Oregon performance and West Virginia has a nice,
ranked win over Virginia last week. This could have some early implications for
the Big 12 race. The Rich Rod revival is going splendid and with a win here WVU
has a real shot at starting the season 8-0.
My pick: West Virginia ML
Texas A&M at LSU (-9.5)
I have said it multiple times. TAMU was the top 10 preseason
team the most likely to drop out of the rankings. We saw all of the flaws last
week. Offensive line is a worry, QB is a worry, pace is a worry. There are too
many variables in this game where LSU could blow them out. I believe in LSU to
bounce back here, begrudgingly, but I will play it safe with my pick.
My Pick: LSU ML
Oregon (-3) at USC
Probably the hardest game for me to pick because I have been
so unimpressed by both teams. I will give USC the pass in a look ahead spot
3000 miles from home last week against Rutgers. Oregon is deeper and should
outlast USC, but they should have outlasted Oklahoma State as well. As BFW
would say, it is nut cutting time. Does USC finally have a defense?
My Pick: Oregon -3
Missouri at Mississippi State (-6)
Eli Drinkwitz on fraud watch? Nobody has feasted more off a
soft schedule in the last few years than the Midzou Tigers. Kamario Taylor is
the real deal. Unless I see a report saying Hardy has been cleared to play this
week my unwavering pick is the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
My Pick: Miss State -6
This is by far the deepest slate we have seen yet this
season. All that talk about SEC scheduling this offseason from Big 10 pundits.
I am sure they saw last week’s Big 10 docket and are scrambling to schedule P4
opponents. More cupcakes up north than a bakery during bridal season.
Season Record: 19-13