I pick 10 games every week. Usually these will be the 10
closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the
closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to
talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on the upcoming slate. At the
bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or
bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less
points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the
most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the
points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview.
Disclaimer: these lines are off ESPN at the beginning of the week.
Last week was a tough one. Losing record but only one game
below .500. Still above.500 on the season and we are getting into the thick of
conference play. No better time to bounce back so let’s dive in.
Houston at Texas Tech (-8.5)
Perhaps the under the radar game of the week. Houston has
looked very legit and the stats would indicate that the Cougs could pull an
outright upset. Between all the offseason QB drama it is apparent that the Red
Raiders still need to figure out the offense. They do have the talent advantage
to go a long with home field but man I like Willie Fritz in this spot. I don’t
want to swing too hard here after last week, but I would not be surprised if
this shook up the landscape of the Big 12.
My Pick: Houston +8.5
North Carolina at Clemson (-4.5)
This one has all the makings of a stinker. I don’t think UNC
is very good. Clemson has not proven much on the field. Surely with all that
talent they will bounce back eventually, right? Can we get a wellness check on
Tarheel defensive coordinator Steve Belichick who has been absent from the
sidelines with an undisclosed medical issue? I don’t like taking ML favorites
but again in an effort not to swing big I am going to take Clemson straight up.
Seriously though, we are overdue for either a splattering to remind us of what
Clemson can be, or at the very least a dead cat bounce to scratch our heads to
and wonder where this team was last week.
My Pick: Clemson ML
NC State at Vandy (-4)
This is essentially a pick em on a neutral field. Vandy
would have a half point to a full point edge in that scenario. I really have
not been impressed by the Commodores to this point, but at some point you have
to think Jared Curtis will get serious minutes against quality competition. Would
you look at that, as I go to check my spelling, I see a breaking news headline “Vandy
to start Jared Curtis”. On the flip side Dave Doeren has overstayed his welcome
and I have no bright spot to point to for the wolf pack. I like Clark Lea so I
will take the home team with a little energy in the freshman five-star QB with
the points.
My Pick: Vandy -4
SMU at Louisville (-1.5)
Perhaps the fall asleep and you will miss it game of the week.
Weird channel designation at a time with a lot of SEC action but the winner
would be the de facto second best odds to win the ACC. (Don’t fact check me, I am
saying they would be behind Miami but ahead of everyone else). SMU has turned
the ball over a lot and I think there might be something to that Cardinal
offense. Expect a shoot out on the Ohio River!
My Pick: Louisville -1.5
Mississippi State at South Carolina (-3.5)
Tough spot if you’re picking games. This is essentially a
pick em if not for the Gamecocks home field advantage. Kamario Taylor has been
a bowling ball strapped with chainsaws rolling down a hill. South Carolina has
the number one explosive play rating in the SEC with the most 40+ yard plays in
the country… against extremely pedestrian competition. I have to think at some
point this will self correct. I also do not trust Shane Beamer and think the
Gamecocks are still missing some key pieces. Remember when Josh Hepel hung 60
on Beamer his first season? Came kind of out of nowhere. Lebby’s offense has
some juice and this bulldog squad is just starting to rise. We have seen the
Gamecoks be down despite players like Lanorris Sellers in their back field. Again,
this is a tough for me to pick mostly because South Carolina has not played
anybody. That and I have a bunch of Mississippi State fans in my ear who think
they will lose every game.
My Pick: Mississippi State Money Line
Florida (-2.5) at Auburn
Lot of good SEC action this weekend. This one may be a little
under the radar due to the past couple years of performances in Gainesville and
Auburn. I said I would not pick Auburn for the remainder of the year but daggum
it they are at home and are the more battle tested team. Keys for Florida will
be contain Byrum Brown and forcing him to beat you through the air. Keys for
Auburn will be slowing down the Gator rushing attack. I lean Auburn because DJ
Durkin is still on that sideline and that defense is intact from last year. Don’t
be surprised if you see another low scoring knock down drag out with a little
Jordan-Hare Voodoo.
My Pick: Auburn Money Line
LSU (-2.5) at Ole Miss
The mainstream game of the week. It is as if Satan himself
is fighting all the forces of evil. You all know my feelings towards Lane
Kiffin. I would rather cut off my left hand than root for the guy. There has
been so much off the field hoopla surrounding these programs, who hate each
other without anything extra. To add fuel to the fire, Ole Miss served two
former Rebel, now Tiger players today at the LSU practice facility for
violating their agreements with Ole Miss. On top of that we get a breaking
headline that Sam Leavitt is doubtful for Saturday with a sore throwing
shoulder? If that isn’t the most Lane Kiffin pretend gamesmanship move I have
ever seen… Anyways, LSU is the favorite and I think that is because we picture
the LSU team that housed Clemson week one, but what if… LSU is actually the
team who was only up 13-7 against La Tech midway through the 3rd quarter behind
Leavitt’s multiple interceptions? Before the year we heard he had turnover
issues. Trinidad Chambliss is going to get his numbers. If Kirby Smart, who I
consider the brightest defensive mind in college football, could not come up
with an answer for him then I highly doubt Blake Baker will. It is just a
question of how much will the Ole Miss defense adjust after a porous game
against Louisville to open the season. It should be a good one. If you are
going to the game bring a poncho. I expect plenty of beer and trash to be
thrown on the field. Dare I pick the Ole Miss Rebels outright?
My Pick: Ole Miss ML
West Virginia v. Virginia (-9.5)
I am so high on Tony Elliott. I talked earlier about who is second
in the ACC and I keep forgetting that this team is a legit Top 25 team who
could threaten the SMU’s and Louisville’s of the world. 9.5 is a big line so I
may play it safe.
My Pick: Virginia ML
Colorado at Northwestern (-3.5)
Colorado has already gone on the road as an underdog and
beaten one power four team. I don’t think it is a stretch to say that Georgia
Tech is likely a better team than Northwestern or that Bobby Dodd is a harder
stadium to play in than… uh… the Mike Wilbon bowl? (That is a joke for any
Pardon the Interruption viewers). I don’t know what the stadium is called but I
am taking the team with the talent edge to upset the historically mildcats on
the road.
My Pick: Colorado Money Line
Virginia Tech at Maryland (-3)
I keep hearing James Franklin won’t be at Virginia Tech very
long. I have no idea if that is true but it is nice to see the Hokies with a
little juice. Tight line that I do not have a feel for. Maryland has a cool
flag so I guess I will pick the home favorite.
My Pick: Maryland -3.
Looking back, I am realizing that I took a lot of Moneyline
underdogs. To be honest I think the odds makers have the wrong favorite for
Auburn and Florida. Of course, those same oddsmakers made a fool of me last
week when Michigan upset Oklahoma. I said don’t over think it last week, this
week I am saying over analyze it. Find the padlock stat you can hang your hopes
and dreams on. Bet responsibly.
Season Record: 13-9