As stated in my week 0 recap, every week I pick 10 games. Usually these will be the 10 closest lines. Sometimes relevant matchups may be swapped in lieu of the closest lines if it is a game I (or the fellas I do this pick em with) want to talk about. Below are my picks and a few comments on week one. At the bottom I will keep a running tab of my record so we can all see how well (or bad) I do. A few rules to keep in mind: Money Line favorites are worth less points than betting with or against the spread. Outright upsets are worth the most points. Sometimes as a matter of gamesmanship, you may see me play for the points instead of the pick, but I will try to note that in my preview.
Colorado @ Georgia Tech (-6.5)
The Thursday night game. This article is being published as
this game is kicking off so I apologize if you were waiting for my input before
submitting your bet slip. I did get my pick in on the spread sheet before kickoff;
I just did not make it home in time to type up this preview. Georgia Tech loses
a lot and has to start a new QB in a week one power 4 matchup. On the flip side
Colorado has been in the news since Deion arrived in Boulder. I think Tennessee
will be the real test for how Georgia Tech’s season will go, and I am not super
high on Colorado. Game is in Atlanta so give me Georgia Tech with the points
My Pick: Georgia Tech -6.5)
Miami (-24.5) @ Stanford
Former Pac 12 heartbreaker hosting an ACC week one matchup.
If you read my recap, you know I love what Andrew Luck is building at Stanford.
A west coast road trip could be treacherous this early in the season and 24.5
is a large spread. You may be shocked to learn Miami has never won the ACC
since joining the league. You may have also heard that line about a hundred
times on various CFB podcasts this offseason. Overall, I like Miami. Malachi
Toney returns and Mario Cristobal brings in Darian Mensah at QB. It cannot be overstated
how dangerous Miami’s defense was during their playoff run last season. For
them to go on another run that defense will have to be just as good. I think
Stanford is still a year away from being out of the ACC cellar. I will take
Miami’s potent offense with the points.
My Pick: Miami -24.5
Baylor vs Auburn (-7)
This is a tough one. Auburn is in year one of the Golesh era
with a new QB and Baylor may be playing for Dave Aranda’s job by the end of the
year. Not a true road game since it will be played in Atlanta. If you are not familiar
with Southern Geography, Atlanta is not all that far from Auburn, Alabama. I am
high on Golesh. I watched for a few years at Tennessee before he went on to be
head coach at USF. I am also high on Byrum Brown. If the Auburn defense can
play to the level of last year’s defense, I think it will be a moderately successful
year one even with the departure of Cam Coleman for Texas. I do not love
anything about Baylor.
My Pick: Auburn -7
Tulane @ Duke (-9.5)
Your 2025 ACC champion Duke Blue Devils open against new
look Tulane in Durham, North Carolina. Tulane will look to build on the success
under Jon Sumrall who left for Gainesville this offseason. This is a game I do
not have a feel for. If I were gambling, I would take the home team ML in most
week 1 matchups where I did not have a strong lean. Typically, a Power 4 v G6
Matchup would make me feel better, but Tulane has been in the upper tier of G6
programs going back to when Willie Fritz was the coach. Can they continue to
build on Sumrall’s success? Interesting tidbit, Sumrall almost became the head
coach at North Carolina before Belichick was hired. He wanted the job, but an
internal coup was led to undermine that coaching search in favor of Belichick. Oh,
what could have been.
My Pick: Duke ML
Boston College @ Cincinnati (-7.5)
Cincinnati has to replace Sorsby at QB to begin this season
against an abysmal Boston College who is also breaking in a new QB. As a side
note, I am not sure Cincy got enough flack for the Sorsby fiasco. Did it not
come out that they likely knew of his gambling exploits while he was on the
team? Boston College is awful and is playing on the road. 7.5 is a weird
spread. However, I will take the
Bearcats with the points.
My Pick: Cincinnati -7.5
Clemson @ LSU (-10.5)
Do not let anyone fool you, this is the game of the week.
LSU has dominated headlines because their narcissistic petulant child of a
coach cannot help but be the center of attention. In an offseason where we saw
Kiffin abandon his former team, lie about the players wanting him to coach a
playoff game, get turned in for tampering with Clemson players by former Ole
Miss head coach Matt Luke (now at Clemson as OL coach), and now story after
story is emerging about interfering with NFL training camps to lure players
back to college by filing suit against the NCAA and SEC. I am not going to lie
to you. I hate Lane Kiffin. I have hated him since he infamously told the
Tennessee players he recruited to not go to class so they could follow him to
USC after he defected in the middle of the night. I think he is a bad person,
and I have an axe to grind. And I think at some point it will all catch up with
him. Just not this week. I do think Kiffin is overdue for one of these portal
constructed teams to implode and I am really not sold on Sam Leavitt. However, I
do not see anything at Clemson that excites me. Trevor Lawrence and Tee Higgins
are not suiting up on Saturday. The only thing that makes this a little shaky
for me is that people are so down on Clemson that it makes me wonder if we
collectively are TOO down on Dabo and the Tigers. This is a guy who for almost
a decade was considered the second-best coach in the sport. A smart man would
take LSU ML, but because picking Clemson against the spread is worth more that
is who I am going with. I do like LSU to win outright at home in Kiffin’s debut,
but do not be surprised if it requires a late drive to seal it in a one score game.
My Pick: Clemson +10.5
UNLV (-3) @ Hawaii
Even though they lost last week UNLV looked pretty good on offense.
Jackson Arnold looked solid in his first game as QB under Dan Mullen. All
things considered, after Virginia and Memphis, UNLV was the 3rd best
looking team in week 0. Flying to Hawaii is a lot like Miami flying to
Stanford. Cannot take the distance for granted and you must be intentional with
your game preparation. Mullen has enough experience to get his guys ready.
My Pick: UNLV -3
UCLA (-1.5) @ Cal
Interesting matchup of former Pac 12 foes and in-state
rivals. UCLA is favored by 1.5, so this is essentially a tossup. You may have guessed
I am a Nico hater for the same reasons I am a Kiffin hater, but I like his
development over the course of last season. I also think Chesney can get UCLA
off the mat and back to being respectable, but I am not sure it is this season.
That being said, Cal is not exactly a bunch of world beaters. I am high on
Golden Bears QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, and they are the home team.
My Pick: Cal ML
Louisville vs Ole
Miss (-6.5)
Another big week one matchup for another team that has been
in the media this offseason. I was impressed with how Pete Golding kept the team
together amidst a fire storm of bad press and off the field speculation last
season. Huge to get Trinidad Chambliss back at QB. It is impossible for me to
believe Ole Miss does not take a step back. They lost players to the NFL. They
lost players to the portal. They may lose players to the NFL who then go back
to the portal. (Not technically true but that does raise some logistical
questions.) Not to mention I think Charlie Weiss Jr. as play caller was the
genius behind that offense and he is now in Baton Rouge. All that to be said,
they are still going to be good. Chambliss is still a top 3 QB in the SEC until
proven otherwise. I think Louisville will be in contention to make the ACC
championship game. Nashville is closer to Louisville than Oxford, but I know a
lot more Ole Miss fans in Nashville than I do Cardinals fans. Due to the points,
I am going to split the baby on this one. Ole Miss wins outright but I am going
to take Louisville +6.5.
My Pick: Louisville +6.5
SMU (-3) @ Florida State
Does Norvell have anything left in the tank? It feels like
he is only coaching this season because Florida State has a money problem in
their athletic department. If I were a betting man Norvell will be the first
coach fired this year. They did blow the doors off Alabama in the first game of
2025 by dominating the line of scrimmage. SMU is eyeing another playoff
appearance and to contend with Miami for an ACC championship. How funny would
it be if the Ponies got one before the Hurricanes? I just do not believe in the
Seminoles. I don’t like the QB. It is a new offensive coordinator with the
departure of Gus Malzahn. The one saving grace is that it is at home. Can the
Tallahassee crowd give the home team enough juice in a game with a close
spread?
My Pick: SMU -3
That is my week one preview. I will be smoking ribs and
wings or planted firmly on my couch this weekend soaking it all in. As a reminder,
Pac 12 after dark is back! Sickos rejoice!
Season Record: 3-1