Tulane needs an offense it can trust to put a drive
together.
After a touchdown-free opener at Duke, Kadin Semonza will
get the opportunity to build one. Will Hall has named him the starter against
South Alabama, giving the former Ball State quarterback the next chance to
establish himself in a competition that carried through preseason camp. Hall
pointed to the offense’s operation and Semonza’s distribution of the ball when
explaining the change. Starter announcement
There is a legitimate case for the move that reaches well
beyond one half in Durham. Semonza has already spent a season being asked to
carry a substantial college passing workload. His Ball State performance offers
reasons to believe Tulane can build a productive offense around him—and a few
reminders of what that offense will need to provide.
From freshman growing pains to a breakout season
Semonza’s first college season was uneven. In 2023, he
appeared in four games and made three starts before Ball State ultimately
preserved his redshirt. He finished with 480 passing yards, three touchdowns
and five interceptions. His debut at Kentucky produced 165 yards and a
touchdown on 15-of-21 passing, but Georgia intercepted him three times the
following week. Those were the growing pains of a true freshman encountering
college defenses immediately. Ball State biography, 2023 game log
His response in 2024 is what makes this opportunity
interesting. Semonza completed 275 of 427 passes for 2,904 yards, 25 touchdowns
and 10 interceptions, earning MAC Freshman of the Year. His 64.4% completion
rate came across a full 12-game season, with approximately 36 attempts per
game. Ball State had not received that many touchdown passes from a quarterback
since Keith Wenning’s 35 in 2013. Official statistics, Ball State biography
That production held up beyond the schedule’s easiest
assignment. Remove the opener against FCS Missouri State and he still had 2,642
yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions against FBS opponents. In eight
conference games, he threw 19 touchdowns against five interceptions and
averaged 271.6 passing yards. His November average climbed to 288.8 yards, with
10 touchdown passes over the final four games. Those numbers support a
quarterback with a meaningful foundation to build upon. 2024 splits
A track record of extending and finishing drives
For Tulane, the most relevant numbers may be the ones tied
to extending and finishing possessions.
On third down in 2024, Semonza completed 77 of 119 passes
for 951 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions. That is a 64.7%
completion rate and approximately eight yards per attempt. Completion
percentage is not a conversion rate, and those attempts exclude sacks. Still,
it is encouraging production in obvious passing situations. Inside the
opponent’s 20-yard line, he threw 14 touchdown passes without an interception
on 40 attempts. He also completed 73.3% of his passes when trailing by one to
seven points, with six touchdowns and one interception. His effectiveness was
visible in competitive game situations. Situational statistics
The Northern Illinois game gives those numbers a concrete
example. Ball State converted 10 of 18 third downs against a defense that
entered the matchup leading the nation in third-down defense. Semonza threw two
touchdowns without an interception. When NIU took the lead late, he completed a
34-yard pass to Malcolm Gillie and a five-yard pass to Tanner Koziol to set up
Jackson Courville’s winning field goal. Official NIU recap
The play-by-play also shows how the offense repeatedly found
useful answers underneath and across the middle. Semonza connected with Koziol
for 18 yards on third-and-10, then later found Justin Bowick for nine yards on
third-and-seven during the same touchdown drive. That is the kind of repeatable
contribution Tulane needs from its passing game: completions that keep the full
playbook available for another set of downs. NIU play-by-play
Finding reliable targets and creating bigger plays
Koziol’s presence deserves real weight in this evaluation.
He caught 94 passes for 839 yards and eight touchdowns in 2024, providing an
unusually productive and dependable tight end. Tulane cannot assume it can
reproduce that connection immediately. But Semonza’s history suggests there is
value in establishing a trusted target between the numbers and giving him
accessible answers when the defense takes away the outside receivers. That is a
proposed application of his Ball State experience, rather than a claim that the
two offenses are identical. Koziol’s official biography
There were examples of more expansive playmaking, too. At
Buffalo, Ball State’s official recap describes a 23-yard touchdown to Bowick
delivered on the run and a later 22-yard scoring connection in the corner of
the end zone. Bowick finished with 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
Those plays broaden the case for Semonza: Tulane can give him opportunities to
attack beyond its underneath passing game. Official Buffalo recap
His Vanderbilt performance is another useful reference.
Semonza completed all six of his passes on Ball State’s opening touchdown drive
and later helped engineer a 94-yard touchdown possession that tied the game in
the third quarter. He finished 21-of-29 for 190 yards, one touchdown and no
interceptions. Vanderbilt eventually won 24-14, and its two fourth-quarter
sacks helped stall Ball State. Both parts matter: Semonza demonstrated that he
could execute sustained drives against an SEC opponent, while the finish showed
how quickly pressure could limit the offense. Official Vanderbilt recap
Protection and consistency remain essential
The limitations should shape Tulane’s expectations. Ball
State finished 3-9 in 2024. Its defense surrendered 40.1 points per game, which
makes the record an incomplete judgment of its quarterback, but Semonza also
had rough outings of his own. Miami held him to 111 passing yards, and James
Madison intercepted him three times. His season average of 6.8 yards per
attempt reflects room for greater passing efficiency. Ball State season report, 2024 game log
Protection remains central. Ball State allowed 33 sacks that
season, and Semonza finished with minus-85 net rushing yards. College rushing
totals include sack yardage, so that number alone is a poor measure of his
mobility. It does reinforce that Tulane should build around his passing and
provide viable outlets when protection breaks down. A quarterback change cannot
compensate indefinitely for missed blocks or penalties. Ball State season report
His Duke appearance offered an opening, rather than a
finished answer. Semonza went 11-of-21 for 140 yards without a touchdown or
interception and took three sacks. Tulane finished with only 54 rushing yards
and converted three of 14 third downs. There is substantial work ahead for the
entire offense. Tulane–Duke box score
What Tulane needs against South Alabama
South Alabama makes possession efficiency particularly
relevant. The Jaguars opened with a 39-14 win over Southeastern Louisiana, held
the ball for more than 40 minutes and prevented the Lions from converting any
of their seven third downs. They also intercepted two passes. An FCS opener
cannot establish how that defense will perform against Tulane, but it does show
the danger of allowing South Alabama to control the ball while the Green Wave
struggles to stay on the field. South Alabama game preview
My preferred approach would give Semonza early opportunities
to establish completions: selective first-down throws, underneath options
paired with routes beyond the sticks, and defined outlets for pressure. The
running game still has to contribute. The goal is to make South Alabama defend
enough of the field that neither the quarterback nor the offensive line spends
the evening facing predictable passing situations.
The best measure of his first start will be whether Tulane
consistently creates manageable downs, sustains possessions and finishes them
with touchdowns. His Ball State career provides evidence that he can contribute
to all three.
Semonza still has to earn the job beyond Saturday. But the
case for giving him this opportunity is substantial: a full season of passing
production, demonstrated success in important situations and specific examples
of keeping an offense moving when the game was still there to win.
For a Tulane team searching for its first touchdown of the
season, that is a worthwhile place to begin.